The risk calculation behind career moves
When someone starts evaluating and weighing up considerations such as roles, compensation and overall opportunity, their choices become more complex.
In one of my previous articles, I explored how identity shapes the way people interpret signals, experience recognition and feel a sense of belonging within an organisation. These same factors also underpin how individuals perceive and navigate the risks associated with a potential move.
Career risk is multidimensional, encompassing psychological, social, professional and timing considerations.
Understanding the dimensions of career risk
Identity risk reflects the alignment between a role and an individual's values and aspirations. Social identity (Tajfel and Turner, 1979), as explored in my previous article, shows that individuals seek environments where they can be themselves, reinforced by social groups.
Social risk arises from the expectations and perceptions of peers, family and mentors. Sociocultural theory (Vygotsky, 1978) emphasises that thinking and decision-making are influenced by social interactions and cultural context. My MSc research touched on the cultural aspect that influences talent attraction and how social influence impacts how they respond to employer brands.
Professional risk encompasses uncertainty about growth, reputation and career trajectory. Behavioural research in decision-making suggests that perceived professional risk can delay action, prompting individuals to favour familiar options.
Timing risk is equally influential when considering a career move. Where someone is in their life and experience all affect whether an individual feels ready to consider a move. Timing alongside identity, social expectations and perceived opportunity can influence how someone evaluates an opportunity. Therefore, circumstance and timing mean that an opportunity can be evaluated differently.
Signals and organisational behaviour
In contemporary talent conversations, phenomena such as quiet quitting and quiet firing highlight the consequences of risk perception.
In 2025, quiet quitting became one of the most spoken-about topics sweeping across workplaces. It was a psychological shift in which individuals felt disengaged from going "above and beyond" after doing so for long periods of time, thus raising expectations when, in reality, they weren't being recognised for their efforts. When day-to-day interactions fail to convey value, recognition and advocacy, individuals may consciously reduce investment to protect themselves. This is, at its core, a self-preservation tool individuals may use to protect their well-being.
Quiet firing, on the other hand, reflects the signals an organisation communicates, whether intentionally or not, about diminished value, opportunity and support. These sometimes subtle behaviours create risk where employees sense their contributions are not fully recognised or understood, increasing openness to external opportunities even before a formal decision to leave arises.
Both behaviours demonstrate that risk is not a theoretical concept; it manifests in ways individuals engage with their work environment. Importantly, these signals intersect with identity, reinforcing an individual's sense of belonging, recognition and alignment with organisational values.
Implications for talent acquisition and employer brand
Talent acquisition teams play a role in shaping the perceived risk of career moves. The signals conveyed throughout the candidate experience, from role clarity through to employer brand messaging and organisational culture, all inform whether a potential opportunity feels aligned with identity and personal growth.
Understanding career risk requires looking beyond the immediate opportunity. Talent acquisition and employer brand leaders need to account for:
How identity alignment is conveyed through messaging, employee stories and organisational culture
How social and professional risks are reduced by clarity, advocacy and recognition
How timing influences readiness to engage, and the window during which perceived risk is most critical
In recognising and addressing these dimensions, organisations can attract talent more effectively and reduce disengagement and quiet quitting.